Gold jewelry is the goods. Now we talk about gold bars. Gold pieces used as tools to hoard, buy, even speculative, «surfing» are considered as goods. Gold is only money when it is a means of payment. The money nature of gold cannot be promoted in everyday transactions so it cannot substitute for money.
Keywords: price, gold, investments, Central Banks, inflation, Southeast Asia, Vietnam
There are many factors that affect the price of gold. The most important factors to consider include inflation, oil prices, dollar values, world geopolitical situation, economic crisis, supply and demand for physical gold, seasonal cycles, Stock market, psycho-behavioral factors and technical barriers of analysts, etc. In recent times, the manipulation of speculative good has disturbed the market. Some time.
1. Central Banks:
Central banks play an important role in the impact on gold prices. Trends in central banks are increasing in gold reserves instead of dollars. In addition to buying and selling gold, central banks also affect lending, swaps and other derivatives. Most central banks will report the amount of gold they are holding for the IMF Monetary Fund and every month. However, some central banks whose gold holdings are not used for reserve purposes will not report to the IMF.
Commodity gold sales by central banks: The CBGA covers two phases from 1999 to 2004 and from 2004 to 2009, central banks have committed to phase 2 of the «Gold Medallion Agreement» March 3, 2004, including the central banks of the EU, Switzerland and Sweden, agreed to limit their gold sales over the five years beginning September 28, 2004. The maximum sale is 2,500 tons. However, until now their sales are not as good as signed.
2. Inflationary:
Gold patches are usually proportional to the increase in inflation. In times of high inflation, depressed paper money tends to invest in gold.
To keep asset value, gold is an asset to hoard and value does not depend on any health economy. Gold is a powerful financial tool to prevent inflation. Normally, in order to cope with high inflation, the market tends to buy gold with the expectation that property values will not decrease. Investment funds, speculators, also buy gold with the goal of using gold as a commodity. Asset value in the case of high inflation or economic downturn, the price of securities contract down.
The general uncertainty of investors is manifested in the stable demand for gold (and silver) as important insurance assets. The volume of transactions of purchase/sale only for the first working day of January.
3. Bean sprouts:
An unspoken rule in the market to date is that the price of gold is always 10 times higher than the price of oil. Because oil prices are likely to have a strong impact on inflation, it will also have a strong impact on gold prices.
4. Uncertainty — politics:
Political crises, economic crises, war, terrorism, natural disasters are the factors that strongly influence the price of gold. Gold is a safe haven when uncertainty occurs.
5. Cune and Bridge Bevels:
Demand for consumption: demand hoarding, jewelry, used in industry. This may be evident in the gold trading cycle especially in some countries such as wedding season in India, Lunar New Year in China, etc. Increasing demand causes gold prices to rising and vice versa.
Production: According to the World Gold Council, the volume of gold produced in recent years is about 2,500 tons/year. The volume of gold output of gold companies leading the world also impacted not small to the price. Yes. Currently, Australia, China, Africa are the major gold producers in the world. [2]
6. Dollar value:
USD value is inversely correlated with gold price. Therefore, the gold business must specifically monitor the health of the US economy and the value of the dollar.
7. Psychological and technical levels:
Psychological and technical prices have a big impact on buying and selling on the gold market. Currently, the "1000" price level is a very important psychological level.
Other psychological barriers have had a major impact on the price of gold in the reduction such as 500, 600, 700, etc.
Technical barriers recommended by experts such as 950,992, etc. or the prices have appeared in the past such as 732, 850, etc. a huge impact on the buy, sell or stop loss, profit.
8. Health in big cities:
The analysis of the health of the major economies, especially the United States, at the same time with the analysis of the value of the currency greatly helps the gold business.
9. Other suffixes:
Government intervention in the mining process also has a big impact on gold prices. The policy of financial management of the government is also a factor to consider when investing gold.
News related to gold mining companies, gold mines, etc. also impacted the price of gold.
Gold trading on the ETFs: The emergence of this tragedy has created a viable and highly profitable gold trading platform for investors and is one of the contributing factors to the rise in gold prices. In recent years.
Speculators are moving a lot to impact on world gold prices. A careful analysis of speculative behavior can help gold trading.
Consumers are beginning to get used to the high prices of gold. Crowd psychology usually occurs when gold prices increase sharply or sharply.
Pic. 1. USA: buying silver and gold
The general uncertainty of investors is manifested in the stable demand for gold (and silver) as important insurance assets. The volume of transactions of purchase/sale only for the first working day of January.
2016 amounted to 50–80 % of the total volume of gold and silver sold in one month a year earlier — in January 2015 (Pic. 1). The demand for gold from the stock exchange investment funds (ETF) by mid-2016 reached the values that were noted during the last financial crisis (Pic 2). [1]
Pic. 2. The demand for gold from the exchange investment funds (ETF)
Factors affecting the gold price of Vietnam:
Domestic gold prices are affected by world gold price and YND / USD exchange rate with the following two influencing factors: [3]
1. Influential factors from the internal environment of the country:
‒ The situation of production, business, import and export of branches, levels and economic sectors.
‒ Financial situation, state budget revenues and expenditures.
‒ Economic policies, taxation, interest, money, credit, price, circulation, distribution, corporate management, domestic and foreign investment.
‒ Macro management capacity: economic and financial interventions.
‒ The situation of national income, personal income.
‒ Inflation, price indices, price levels.
‒ Psychological fear of inflation and preservation of capital in business.
‒ Conditions of security, national defense, politics and foreign affairs, etc.
2. Influential factors from the external environment of the country:
‒ The situation of market prices, supply and demand of countries.
‒ The level of competition in the world in each category.
‒ Monetary, credit-investment situation of countries.
‒ Degrees of tax and trade protection.
‒ Political, military and international relations status.
‒ Weather and climate influences supply and demand.
Above is some analysis of the main causes of gold price impact in Ho Chi Minh City. In fact, there are many other reasons, many other factors involved.
If you want to identify, analyze and accurately predict the price of gold, the dollar price on the market requires the full collection of accurate information at each time, in each region. The gathering of information, as such, is currently the biggest difficulty for those involved in the gold and dollar markets. Therefore, the price of gold, dollar price is always a question mark.
References:
- Ершов М. И. Механизмы роста российской экономики в условиях обострения финансовых проблем в мире // Вопросы экономики. — 2016. — № 12. — С. 5–25.
- Gap between VN gold price, global market price narrows // Vietnam news: The national English language daily. URL: http://vietnamnews.vn (дата обращения: 26.05.2017).
- Gold 's price today // Vietnam’s gold price. URL: http://giavanghomnay.com (дата обращения: 26.05.2017).
