Introduction
The assessment of transboundary water management in Kabul River Basin is extremely important since there has not signed any treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan yet. Kabul River Basin is a lifeline for the related residents of both riparian countries (Afghanistan and Pakistan). Geographically the Kabul river basin is located in the eastern central part of Afghanistan. This river basin lies between longitude 67 40 to 71 42 east, and latitude 33 ˚ 33ʹ to 36˚ 02ʹ north. The total length of this river is 700 km. It is Afghanistan’s fourth largest basin after Amu Darya, Helmand, and Harirud and Murghab river basins. In Kabul River Basin, population is increasing day by day at quicker rate. This river is home to 700 million people in Kabul, which constitutes 34 % of Afghanistan’s total population. Also, Kabul River Basin irrigates 11 % of Afghanistan’s total area, and overall capacity of Kabul River Basin is 21 billion cubic meters. The increasing of population is another phenomena and it multiplies the demand for drinking water, water for irrigation and consequently they will need for more hydroelectric power either. As Afghanistan’s agriculture sector depends on irrigation, from other side, 80 % of Afghanistan’s GDP provides by agriculture so, they need to well- enough water to irrigate their lands in order to produce fruits and crops not only for their own utilization but also to export to foreign countries for their income. In addition, Afghanistan has the lowest water storage in the world. Afghanistan is confronting water crisis due to climate change. Global warming is another factor that Kabul needs more and more water since the planting of more trees need more water to control global warming.
Furthermore, Afghan government has planned to construct new dams over Kabul River Basin since Afghanistan is importing hydroelectric power now from some Central Asian countries and she does not have its own enough electricity. The demand for the electricity is increasing, because the growth of population and the development of new technology. At this time, new technology is a new phenomenon for the people of Afghanistan since 40 years civil war has been taking everything from Afghanistan. Taliban (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan) held power from 1996 to 2001, and they enforced a strict regime. During their tenure, there was no technology, even people did not know what cell phone is, and the seeing of a cell phone was an unbelievable phenomenon for people. During that time, more students were going to Traditional Islamic Schools/madrasas. After the September 11 attacks, NATO-led International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) performed operations and had toppled the Taliban regime. Then Intern government under the presidency of Hamid Karzai held the power, presidential elections took place. Now, Afghanistan has changed. According to the reports of Ministry of Education of Afghanistan, approximately there are 18ooo schools, including- public and private. In order not to deviate from the main topic, Afghanistan has developed, all these promotions depend on technology, and consequently technology runs by electric power. So, the more electric power we need, the better management of water is needed.
From other hand, Kabul River Basin is also lifeline for the residents of Pakistan, particularly for the population of Peshawar valley since Pakistan is a water stressed country. The per capita water resources availability is 1000 cubic meter that was 5600 cubic meter the time of partition. The growing population is another phenomena, which multiplies the shortage of water in Pakistan. The lives of most people in Pakistan depends on agriculture, and the development of agriculture is impossible without water. Also, Pakistan’s economy and industry have direct relation with water since they support by water. As Pakistan is a downstream country to Kabul River Basin, and it is a disadvantage for her. Vice versa Afghanistan is an upstream riparian country to Kabul River Basin, but Afghanistan could not build enough reservoirs over Kabul River Basin due to the four decades war. So, Afghanistan has the lowest capacity of water storage in the world. So, the long conflict in Afghanistan was a kind of advantage for Pakistan because this war has taken everything from Afghanistan, including capacity, resources and knowledge. If Afghanistan as an upstream riparian constructs reservoirs over the river, it puts more stress at Pakistan for the demand of water, and can multiply the shortage of water as she has already confronted with the lack of water. However, the building of water reservoirs over river is in inevitable issue for Afghanistan as she strictly needs it because 80 % of her GDP depends on agriculture and water is the most important element for agriculture sector. If Afghanistan implements her infrastructure plan over river, it will decrease 17 percent of annul flow to Pakistan, which is a huge economic damage for Pakistan. Moreover, the lives of people of Peshawar valley depends on agriculture as their harvests are fruits, vegetables, corn, rice and maize, and water is the source of food security for the people of Pakistan especially for the residents of Peshawar valley. If they face with the shortage of water, there will be a big crisis and people will not receive their normal income. Another remarkable concern could be global warming for Pakistan; as the quick melting of glaciers of Kabul River’s tributary Kunar River, which could decrease flow to Pakistan. Additionally, Pakistan built a dam over Kabul River near Warsak, based on Colombo plan 1760 with the assistance of Canadian government, which provides 240 MW of electricity and prepare water for 120000 acres of land of Peshawar valley. If Afghanistan also builds such dams over the river, surely it will decrease the flow of water, and the aforesaid dam of Pakistan will not have enough water. Consequently, the mentioned dam will not be able to produce enough electricity as well. So, this is another concern for the government of Pakistan. Water pollution is also an irritating problem for Pakistan, particularly in the areas, which Kabul River and its tributaries flow. This challenge already arisen constraints and problems for the farmers of Peshawar valley. So, these are the concerns and problems, which Pakistan side could argue for it.
Pakistan and Afghanistan both confronting different challenges, like drought, quick rate of population, demographic changes, floods, internal conflicts, and global warming. Afghanistan has already faced problems as lower snowfall, deforestation, more population, drought, and global warming. Also, Afghanistan faced the breakdown of Mirab, who is managing, controlling and distributing water at local levels. All these constraints caused the shortage of water in Afghanistan especially in the areas of Kabul River Basin. Climatic changing is other problems for both regions, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Actually, this climate change has affected the lives of population of both sides. This climate change has brought the shortage of water due to the rising of temperature, drought, fast melting of glaciers and the shifting of precipitation. For instance, global warming had decreased by thirty percent huge glaciers in Pamir and Hindu- Kush mountains, and normally smaller glaciers visionary disappeared. It is small example for the side of Afghanistan. The fast melting of glaciers in Hindu- Kush and Pamir regions will not only cause the shortage of water, but also directly affect the lives of millions of people. Another remarkable challenge is the changing of monsoon patterns, which decrease twenty percent precipitation in the Kabul River Basin.
From other hand, Pakistan is either victimized by natural disasters. She confronted with drought, lower rainfall, and floods which affected the agriculture economy of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, particularly Peshawar valley. Pakistan has more than five thousands of glaciers, that flowing to Indus River through 10 river sub- basins. These glaciers are central important lifeline for the rivers of Pakistan, including Kabul River Basin and Indus River Basin. The importance of theses glaciers is that they are not located in one location, but they are located in Khyber Pakhunkhwa, Azad Kashmir, and Gilgit- Baltistan. If they were located in one location, natural disasters could harm them easily. Now, when natural disaster happens in Azad Kashmir, merely can harm the glaciers which are positioned there, and cannot affect the glaciers which are located in other positions. Furthermore, climate change is also a challenge for Pakistan which it brought about two thousand and five hundred glacier lakes due to glacier melting water, and 52 out of 2500 already possibly declared dangerous. In 2010, the most parts of Pakistan faced with the dangerous floods, which were unique in her history. This flood damaged the economy, left 1985 people died, and twenty million more affected over all Pakistan. The total economic damage of this flood was Rs. 855 billion. In addition, as the population of Pakistan is increasing, which multiplies demand for fuel, including natural gas for cooking purposes and petrol or diesel for the running of automobiles, which it will cause the emissions of carbon, the increasing of temperature, which will melt glaciers and it provide huge floods which potentially destroy infrastructures, including, dams, houses, bridges, markets, schools, universities and etc. However, urbanization is an international phenomena but can touch challenges for both countries, Pakistan and Afghanistan, which people go to cities from village zones to get jobs and it itself increases the demand for water; however, the having of an urbanized and modern life is a natural demand of any human being as normally, cities and urban regions have more facilities and convenient than rural and village areas. But this is the responsibility of related governments to find rationale remedies for such challenges and problems.
This term paper is based on the hypotheses “ensuring good governance of Kabul river basin can pave path for stability and improve water demand. This research reaches the following two objectives:
a) Finding out the existing status of water governance in Kabul river basin;
b) Recommending proper approaches for better governance of Kabul river basin.
To observe the above criteria, it is needed to touch rational solutions and find the best proposed ways for the managing of these challenges and problems. This research will discuss and find answers to the research question “What are the main challenges against water governance over Kabul river basin? The answer of this question will not only help both governments, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, but also recommend international donors how to properly manage trans-boundary water problem of Kabul River Basin.
Figure 1.The map of Kabul River Basin illustrating its location with neighboring countries
Literature Review
There are two hundred and seventy six transboundary river basins around the world, which constitutes sixty percent of the world-wide river flow. Aforesaid river basins have been shared by one hundred and forty eight countries, and are host to forty percent of the world’s residents. These rivers are vital for the planets ecology. Without them, many ecosystems would have perished. Rivers shape the terrain and make wide basins and high mountains. These landscapes are also host to a huge variety of animals and plants. For thousands of years, areas near rivers have attracted human settlements. There are four major hydro-electric dams in the Kabul river basin, including Mahipar, Naghlu, and Sarobi 1 and Sarobi 2 hydropower infrastructures. This term paper refers to four key readings: Sadeqinazhad, Atef, Amatya (2018), Hayat (2020), Azad (2014), and Yousaf (2017). As the Kabul River Basin is transboundary, if there is competition over these shared resources between Pakistan and Afghanistan. It potentially affect both countries, including political and economic and social relations. Good governance in Kabul River Basin can lead to stability for both riparian states as the security of water is as important as national security. Similarly, there is strong potential if both riparian states do not have a legal framework over the river, the possible unrest is not away. So, both riparian states need to utilize Positive Sum Outcomes (win–win scenarios), and Basket of Benefits approaches. A Zero Sum Outcomes (win — lose or lose-lose scenarios) is only not in the favor of both countries, but also in the region. Moreover , it possibly results in prevention of conflicts and pave the path for a motivated cooperation. Mutual cooperation is able to bring more water for sustainable use in the basin, decreasing soil erosion, reducing drought, and make sure food security. The outcomes of this study have illustrated that the benefits of water sharing in transboundary river basins are mainly based on co-riparian states’ cooperative efforts to undermine the expenses and multiply the outcomes. The impacts of joint investments in both states can produce plenty of advantages, but not limited to, flood control, decreasing of sedimentation, availability of more water and hydropower production. Furthermore, mutual cooperation for both Afghanistan and Pakistan in Kabul River Basin is as important as blood for the human being since both states are at the unique positions to this river. Afghanistan is either upstream and either downstream to Kabul River Basin. Similarly, Pakistan is either upstream and either lower stream to this river because Pakistan is upstream to Indus Chitral River Basin, which Kunar River is an important tributary to it. So, mutual and joint cooperation can avoid potential political unrests, even possible conflicts. Actually, Afghanistan and Pakistan shares a long borders, which is home to both nations. People who live both sides of the borders share cultures, even in Pakistani side living some Afghan extended families, who adapted refugee life due to Civil War, and they have lived since that time. Similarly, both nations have historic ties as well, the borders divided them, even having the same language, religion. Also, Pakistan was home to more Afghans when they moved to Pakistan during Civil War of Afghanistan. So, these issues suggest that both nations need to a close cooperation over the control of Kabul River Basin.
Water governance in Afghanistan
The existing population of Afghanistan is more than 33 million that potentially it will be 56 million by 2050 (Hayat 2020). This suggests 80 % of population growth, which will put more stress on the already water stressed country. Similarly, climate change, which is a world- wide challenge will cause to the melting of glaciers that it can directly decrease water flow in rivers. For such a country which is the poorest, and largely depends on agriculture it is tough and difficult to overcome in this situation. Glacial and snow are important sources for the direct supporting of seasonal streams, aquifers and rivers which prepare drinking water for cities. Afghanistan had faced with drought from 1999 to 2005, which affected different villages of this country. Afghanistan had conflicts over water flow with its neighboring countries. Afghanistan had water reservoirs in the past, but all of them had damaged by the four decades longstanding civil war. Now, 30–35 % of freshwater stays in Afghanistan because of the lack of infrastructure (reservoirs). Normally, based on Afghanistan’ geographic location its snow runoff passes to neighboring countries, Iran, Pakistan and Central Asian Countries. It is quite difficult in Afghanistan to regularly have clean and freshwater, even reliable data is not available due to the longstanding conflict. Similarly, this conflict affected different aspects of life, including water scientists and their knowledge since they had disconnected from technology and international scientific community. So, Afghanistan had lost capacity, including human resources and physical resources. Now, Afghanistan faces with the gap of governance and management because the war was utmost dangerous for all aspects of life, including water sector.
As the current water governance of Afghanistan is discussing, it need to be compared with the criteria of governance. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recommends the following principles for water governance:
- Efficiency
- Data and Management;
- Financing;
- Regulatory Frameworks;
- Innovative Governance.
- Effectiveness
- Capacity;
- Policy Coherence;
- Appropriate Scales within Basin Systems;
- Clear Roles and Responsibilities.
- Trust and Engagement
- Monitoring and Evaluation;
- Trade-offs across users, rural and urban areas, and generations;
- Stakeholder Engagement.
Above principles suggests that these principles are enforced in water governance sector of Afghanistan since there are information gap, administrative gap, and capacity gap.
The power of Afghanistan
- Geographic power:Afghanistan and Pakistan have the balance of this power because Afghanistan is upstream riparian to Kabul River Basina, similarly Pakistan is upstream country to Chitral-Kunar tributary which has the entire drainage of Swat to Kabul River drainage system.
- Material power:Afghanistan has the lowest material in the region because the four decades conflict has taken everything from this country. This country does not have good capacities and capabilities. Similarly, she has low literacy rate, low technical capacity, low population, low GDP, and limited number of military troops; however, this country has been supporting by international community since 2001. Vice versa, the material power of Pakistan is truly high than Afghanistan since she has technological and military capacities, nuclear power, stronger knowledge regarding water, comparatively stronger economy, and better financial and political support in Southwest than Afghanistan. So, Pakistan is stronger than Afghanistan in material power.
- Bargaining power:Without the upstream position of Afghanistan, Pakistan is enhanced in bargaining power because she has experience of bargaining with India. The four decades conflict affected Afghanistan’s capacity in this regard either.
- Ideational power: However, the low statistics of water in Pakistan, itsideational power is balanced with Afghanistan since she can use its strong media in this regard.
Last but not least, Afghanistan is equal in the power with Pakistan because the above literature recommends that Pakistan is stronger than Afghanistan, which she has good capacities, comparatively stable economy, and stronger financial and political support in southwest, good technology, nuclear power, more military troops. Vice versa, the longstanding conflict weakened Afghanistan in many aspects as mentioned above. Kabul River Basin is a vital contributor for the water security of both countries, including Afghanistan and Pakistan since the lives of more people depends on agriculture which irrigates by water. The peak flow of Kabul River Basin occurs in July and August. Additionally, this river directly feeding from snowpack and glaciers so it is very sensitive to climate change. Climate change potentially affect it as it causes arise of temperature and the melting of glaciers. The climate of the Kabul River Basin is arid, and semi-arid with the hot weather in summer and cold weather in the winter. Climate change mentions the Kabul River Basin touches with reduces runoff in wet seasons, and vice versa confronts with decreased runoff in dry seasons. In addition, good governance in Kabul River Basin has direct relation with flood control, which such potential floods can affect the lives of many people in both riparian states. Also, good governance can properly generates electricity. The generation of electricity can support industries in another riparian country.
The article “Benefit-sharing framework in transboundary river basins”recommends benefits sharing approach, which is positive sum outcomes (wind-win). This approach insists that mutual cooperation is the most important which can decrease spending, and increase outcomes for both countries.
The article “Inclusive Development and Multi-Level
Trans-boundary Water Governance”has found gaps and challenges in water sector of Afghanistan, comparatively explained the power of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and recommends a legal framework and share governing of Kabul River basin.
The article “Kabul River and Pak-Afghan Relations”fully recommends a treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan over Kabul River Basin. It mentioned that treaty will truly avoid potential conflicts over this river.
The article “The Economic, environmental, and political effect of water dam construction on Kabul and Kunar River on the two neighbor countries” also supports regional cooperation and fully recommend a treaty for the avoidance of possible political unrest and conflicts. It mentioned that this treaty will improve state to state relations and will provide a good environment for joint governance.
To conclude, from the evaluation of above literature review it can inference that for the good governance of Kabul River Basin, and avoidance of potential conflict among two riparian countries, mutual cooperation is needed. Both countries need to agree on a mutual cooperation.
Methodology
I used the following two main methods in this research:
- Literature review,
- Comparative studies.
Discussion
This research has found the problems and barriers of water governance in Kabul River Basin. Normally, the main criteria for water governance is efficiency, effectiveness, and trust engagement. The lack of mutual cooperation and a legal framework can add to the challenges. The existing statues of water governance in Kabul River Basin do not meet this criteria. Additionally, Afghanistan has the lowest capacity of water storage in the world. The long conflict in Afghanistan was a kind of advantage for Pakistan because this war has taken everything from Afghanistan, including capacity, resources and knowledge. Pakistan and Afghanistan both confronting different challenges, like drought, quick rate of population, demographic changes, floods, internal conflicts, and global warming. Afghanistan has already faced problems as lower snowfall, deforestation, more population, drought, and global warming. Also, Afghanistan faced the breakdown of Mirab, who is managing, controlling and distributing water at sub- local levels. All these constraints caused the shortage of water in Afghanistan especially in the areas of Kabul River Basin. Climatic changing is another problem for both regions, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Actually, this climate change has affected the lives of population of both sides. This climate change has brought the shortage of water due to the rising of temperature, drought, fast melting of glaciers and the shifting of precipitation.
Moreover, the existing population of Afghanistan is more than 33 million that potentially it will be 56 million by 2050. This suggests 80 % of population growth, which will put more stress on the already water stressed country. Similarly, climate change, which is a world- wide challenge will cause to the melting of glaciers that it can directly decrease water flow in rivers. For such a country which is the poorest, and largely depends on agriculture it is tough and difficult to overcome in this situation. Glacial and snow are the important sources for the direct supporting of seasonal streams, aquifers and rivers which prepare drinking water for cities. Afghanistan had faced with drought from 1999 to 2005, which affected different villages of this country. Afghanistan had conflicts over water flow with its neighboring countries. Afghanistan had water reservoirs in the past, but all of them had damaged by the four decades longstanding civil war. Now, 30–35 % of freshwater stays in Afghanistan because of the lack of infrastructure (reservoirs). Normally, based on Afghanistan’ geographic location its snow runoff passes to neighboring countries, Iran, Pakistan and Central Asian Countries. It is quite difficult in Afghanistan to regularly have clean and freshwater, even reliable data is not available due to the longstanding conflict. Similarly, this conflict affected different aspects of life, including water scientists and their knowledge since they had disconnected from technology and international scientific community. So, Afghanistan had lost capacity, including human resources and physical resources. Now, Afghanistan faces with the gap of governance and management because the war was utmost dangerous for all aspects of life, including water sector.
From other hand, Pakistan is either victimized by natural disasters. She confronted with drought, lower rainfall, and floods which affected the agriculture economy of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, particularly Peshawar valley. Pakistan has more than five thousands of glaciers, that flowing to Indus River through 10 river sub- basins. These glaciers are central important lifeline for the rivers of Pakistan, including Kabul river basin and Indus river basin. The importance of theses glaciers is that they are not located in one location, but they are located in Khyber Pakhunkhwa, Azad Kashmir, and Gilgit- Baltistan. If they were located in one location, natural disasters could harm them easily. Now, when natural disaster happens in Azad Kashmir, merely can harm the glaciers which are positioned there, and cannot affect the glaciers which are located in other positions. Furthermore, climate change is also a challenge for Pakistan which it brought about two thousand and five hundred glacier lakes due to glacier melting water, and 52 out of 2500 already possibly declared dangerous. In 2010, the most parts of Pakistan faced with the dangerous floods, which were unique in her history. This flood damaged the economy, left 1985 people died, and twenty million more affected over all Pakistan. The total economic damage of this flood was Rs. 855 billion. In addition, as the population of Pakistan is increasing, which multiplies demand for fuel, including natural gas for cooking purposes and petrol or diesel for the running of automobiles, which it will cause the emissions of carbon, the increasing of temperature, which will melt glaciers and it provide huge floods which potentially destroy infrastructures, including, dams, houses, bridges, markets, schools, universities and etc. However, urbanization is an international phenomena but can touch challenges for both countries, Pakistan and Afghanistan, which people go to cities from village zones to get jobs and it itself increases the demand for water; however, the having of an urbanized and modern life is a natural demand of any human being as normally, cities and urban regions have more facilities and convenient than rural and village areas. But this is the responsibility of related governments to find rationale remedies for such challenges and problems.
To sum up, Afghanistan and Pakistan need to reach to an agreement of mutual cooperation for the avoidance of potential political, environmental, economical, and social unrests, and conflicts. For the meeting of the criteria of good governance, the government of Afghanistan should take serious and necessary measures to fully implement the principles of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which are efficiency (Data and Management, Financing, Regulatory Frameworks, and Innovative Governance), effectiveness (Capacity, Policy Coherence, Appropriate Scales within Basin Systems, and Clear Roles and Responsibilities), trust and engagement (Monitoring and Evaluation, Trade-offs across users, rural and urban areas, and generations, and Stakeholder Engagement). The implementation of these principles will fill the lacks and gaps for water governance.
Conclusion and Recommendations
Afghanistan and Pakistan need to reach an agreement for mutual cooperation in Kabul River Basin since it crosses the borders and it is a trans-boundary watercourse. Afghan government should fully implement the OECD Principles to fill the gaps and ensure good governance as it will improve the lives of people who are living around of Kabul river basin. Afghanistan had better work closely with donor countries, NGOs to receive more fund for the infrastructure support of this river. Both riparian countries have to take into account substantive rules, including equitable and reasonable use of water, the obligation of no significant harm to watercourses, and the obligation of cooperation. Both countries, including Afghanistan and Pakistan should work for the clear framework and mechanism of water management. Additionally, riparian countries ought to conduct workshops, seminars, and public gatherings for their people to explain the importance of good governance of transboundary water. Principally, observe their rational suggestions for the betterment and improvement of mutual relations between both countries.
References:
- (Hayat 2020). “Inclusive development and multilevel transboundary water governance.”
- Yousaf (2017). “Kabul River and PAK-Afghan Relations.” Central Asian Journal No, 80.
- (Azad 2014). “The economic, environmental, and political effect of water dam construction on Kabul and Kunar rivers on the two neighbor countries.”
- (Sadeqinazhad, Atef, and Amatya 2018). “Benefit-sharing framework in transboundary river basins: the case of the Eastern Kabul River Basin-Afghanistan.” Central Asian Journal of Water Research (2018) 4(1): 1–18.
- (Khan, Pervaz 2014). “The brewing conflict over Kabul River; policy options for legal framework.” The Journal of Governance and Public Policy, 2014.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_schools_in_Afghanistan.
