Annual shaking of the stream of rivers can be happened by the influence of meteorological factors. It was described in this annotation the problem of increasing of river streams due to the annual rainfall amount in rivers which are filled with snow and rain waters.
Key words: analogue, water expenses, trend equation the graphes of shaking.
The meteorological factors of annual shaking of the stream of rivers are happened by the influence of atmosphere rainfalls, the temperature, dampness. Annual rainfall amount in the rivers filling with rain and snow waters is more than the norm and it can be caused the increasement. The summer temperature rivers which are filled with constant snow and waters is more than the norm and it can be caused the increasement of river stream. In both of the cases other factors will be unneglected. For this purpose, some rivers and streams in the middle Zarafshan are taken as an example such as Urgutsoy (Urgut city), Omonkutansoy (Omonkutan village), Sazagansay (Sazagan village), Tusinsoy (the bottom place), Oktepa (Ocha village), Karagochsoy (Mavlyan village), Kuksaroy (the beginning of the mountain) and Beglarsoy (Yangi Akchob). There is a graph according to two streams. The problems of researching of the annual shaking of the stream of rivers are the main research material. For this purpose, it has been taken the observing informations for each river and stream for 50 years between 1961 and 2010. Having analysed the taken materials, having filled the analogue for this years of which don’t have observation informations and set up the water expenses. According to the gathered informations, it was drawn the average annual water expenses of shaking graphs of rivers and streams.
The trend equation of average annual water expenses for each river and stream was accounted according to the graphes. It is clear in the graphes (first picture) average annual water of shaking in Urgutsoy (Urgut city) from 1961 till 2010 is unequal. The biggest average annual water expenses were happened in 1969 and its quantity is 1,34 m3/s. Water expenses were decreased from 1970 in Urgutsoy. The least average annual water expenses is 0,031 m3/s and it happened in 1975.
yars
Urgutsoy — Urgut city
yars
Omonkutonsoy — Omonkuton village
Picture 1. Average annual shaking of water expenses.
Average water expenses of many years is 0,39 m3/s and it was happened in 1988. The quantity of water expenses of many years was decreased according to trend line. The average water expenses shaking of many years was increased then Urgutsoy and trend line. The biggest average annual water expenses was in 1993 year (1,97 m3/s) in Omonkutonsoy, the least average annual water expenses was in 1986 year (0,18 m3/s). Annual quantity of many years was equal in average annual water expenses in 1978 (0,94 m3/s) (1-picture.).
Analyzing the average annual water expenses of annual shaking graphes for the Zarafshan river among the researched rivers and streams in Uzbekistan region the change ment of average annual water expenses is unequal according to line.
The biggest average annual water expenses in the rivers and streams was happened 1969 (In Sazagansay 0,83 m3/s) in Tusinsoy 7,9 m3/s, Oktepa 1,48 m3/s, Karagochsoy 1,10 m3/s and Beglarsoy 2,25 m3/s.
There is a little difference in Kuksaroy except other streams, the maximal average annual water expenses is 1,49 m3/s in 1982. The least average water expenses was noted nearly at the some time in 1985–1990 years. The changement of average water expenses of many years was observed at different quantitus and the observation time also a bit different. For example, annual water expenses of many years in Sazagonsoy in 1989 (0,33 m3/s), in Tusinsoy (0,45 m3/s) in 2009, in Oktepa (0,31 m3/s) in 1980, in Karagochsoy (0,31 m3/s) in 1987, in Kuksaroy 0,60 m3/s in 2005 and in Beglarsoy 0,55 m3/s in 1994. Average annual water expenses of shaking graphs in the trend lines were decreased (1-picture.) in Urgutsoy, Sazagonsoy, in Tusinsoy Omon-Kuton, Oktepa lines of average annual water expenditure of shaking graphes in trend lines were increased, contrary other streams. It proves that the water quantity has been gradually increased for many years in these rivers and streams.
It plays practical role to research the trend legality of average water expenses in these rivers. For this reason, the calculations of computer works were generalized as a graph.
Annual water expenses of trend equations for the rivers and its accuracy
|
T.r. |
The rives-obsertion place |
Trend equations |
Accuracy |
|
1 |
Urgutsoy — Urgut city |
y = -0,0027x + 0,431 |
R² = 0,0394 |
|
2 |
Omonqo’tonsoy- Omonkutan village |
y = 0,0166x + 0,5001 |
R² = 0,3138 |
|
3 |
Sazag’ansoy- Sazagan village |
y = -0,0004x + 0,3569 |
R² = 0,0012 |
|
4 |
Tusinsoy — the bottom place |
y = -0,0021x + 1,5327 |
R² = 0,0005 |
|
5 |
Oqtepasoy — Ocha q |
y = 0,0008x + 0,2855 |
R² = 0,0026 |
|
6 |
Qarag’ochsoy — Mavlyan village |
y = 0,0058x + 0,131 |
R² = 0,0906 |
|
7 |
Ko’ksaroysoy — the beginning of the mountain |
y = 0,0031x + 0,263 |
R² = 0,0203 |
|
8 |
Beglarsoy — Yangi-Aqchob village |
y = 0,0073x + 0,3946 |
R² = 0,0583 |
The quantity of five of these rivers in trend equation is positive and other three of them are negative. So, the average annual water expenses of these five rivers a gradually increasing, and the annual quantity of streams of these three rivers are decreasing from year to year. Our attention to the next research papers is to solve this problem.
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